Showing posts with label MIT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MIT. Show all posts

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Choice Blindness – What are we forgetting?


Photographer: Mark Hanlon

MIT is currently in its Independent Activities Period (IAP). Each January students take a break from regular class work and experience a variety of mini courses ranging from weighty subjects like “Energy Storage Solutions” to just for fun topics like “Build Your Own Electric Guitar.” IAP is a great way to brush up on skills or try something completely new. Fortunately for me the non-credit courses are open to alumni so I’ve spent my week immersed in “Statistics and Visualization for Data Analysis and Inference” (very useful but not much fun) and “Philosophy of Cognitive Science – Choose your own adventure!” (esoteric but mind-bendingly interesting).


Yesterday in the cognitive philosophy course we covered research by Petter Johansson and his colleagues from Lund University. In a 2005 Science paper entitled “Failure to Detect Mismatches between Intention and Outcome in a Simple Decision Task,” the authors present a series of experiments which lead to a construct Johansson calls Choice Blindness. As stated in the paper’s introduction:


“A fundamental assumption of theories of decision-making is that we detect mismatches between intention and outcome, adjust our behavior in the face of error, and adapt to changing circumstances. Is this always the case? We investigated the relation between intention, choice, and introspection. Participants made choices between presented face pairs on the basis of attractiveness, while we covertly manipulated the relationship between choice and outcome that they experienced. Participants failed to notice conspicuous mismatches between their intended choice and the outcome they were presented with, while nevertheless offering introspectively derived reasons for why they chose the way they did. We call this effect choice blindness.”

It is worth taking a more detailed look at the experiment to grasp the full magnitude of this surprising result. Subjects (male and female) were presented with pictures of two different female faces at a time on two separate cards. They were then were asked to point to the picture they found the most attractive. In the manipulation condition, the experimenter performed a slight of hand card trick and presented back to the subject the card they did not pick and asked them to justify their choice. In most cases these subjects proceeded to justify why they choose this other woman as if it was the card they had intended to choose all along, completely unaware of the fact that they DID NOT choose this picture. Amazing!

Why does this happen? The authors suggest that subjects fail in introspection. Johansson believes that, at the time of outcome, subjects no longer have access to their original intentions. A “fundamental assumption of theories of decision making [that] intentions and outcomes form a tight loop” is somehow broken.


There may be another, somewhat complementary, explanation in “motivated forgetting.” Motivated forgetting suggests that given a strong motive and suitable vehicle for belief, people are capable of forgetting information that does not suit their motive and falsely remembering alternative “facts” that do. Note that motivated forgetting involves the subject authentically forgetting the true facts and not just conveniently pretending to forget them for a social/external benefit. In the case of the card experiment, subject desire for consistency may be a strong enough motive to cause subjects to forget their original intent and remember it as it’s opposite.If motivated forgetting is playing a role one might predict that subjects faced with a different motive would not exhibit choice blindness. The following experimental idea could use some work but what if subjects were evaluating and choosing between two race horses before a race at the betting window. The experimenter would then place a bet on the behalf of a subject based on the subject’s choice. In the manipulation case experimenters would ask for a bet, making sure the subject overheard them, to be placed the opposite horse to the one the subject chose. If motivated forgetting is playing a role, I would predict that when the false choice horse won subjects would not remember that this horse was not their original choice and be able to explain the reasons they “chose” this false horse much like in the Johansson experiment. An important difference would arise when the false choice horse lost and the true choice horse won. In this case subjects may remember having actually chosen the winning horse as their motive is now different. This second result would not be predicted with choice blindness.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Competitions as Commitment Devices


Today I had the privilege of judging the first phase of MIT’s famous $100K Business Plan competition. My fellow judges and I watched approximately 30 participants give their best 60-second elevator pitch to sell their business idea. Our contestants were all part of the “development track” which consists of businesses that address global issues such as poverty or the environment. Participants covered an impressive variety of quality ideas and technologies including low cost/non-electrical lighting, unique bio-fuels, medical diagnostics that cost 10 cents and can be mailed to the lab on a post card, solar cooking, and mesh wireless networks that overcome last mile issues in rural areas.

I have a strong personal interest in developmental entrepreneurship. In my day job I was a founding member of the IBM World Development Initiative and the leader behind its successful Global ThinkPlace Challenge to brainstorm sustainable solutions to African poverty. I was also a development track $100K participant myself (although back then it was only the $50K). My “Wider Reach” team, consisting of fellow Sloan MBAs Brian Roughan, Armina Karapetyan, Kamal Quadir, and Joe Zeff along with MIT Media Lab PhD student Jose Espinosa, was the winner of the $2,000 IDEAS Award, the $1K development track, and a semi-finalist in the overall $50K competition. We designed a mobile phone accessible marketplace for Bangladesh. Kamal Quadir stuck with the plan and made it a reality. The company is now called CellBazaar and its success has been widely covered by the media including The Wall Street Journal and The Economist.

Kamal’s story illustrates the power of business plan competitions. Kamal went to MIT with the intent of landing a job in finance. Instead he is an entrepreneur helping thousand of impoverished farmers sell their crops more efficiently. How did this happen? While the organizers of business plan competitions may think they are creating entrepreneurs by providing a little financing and exposure, I believe that these competitions are actually serving as Cialdini commitment devices.

Business plan contestants, many of whom had no original intention of becoming entrepreneurs, make small but increasingly significant commitments to the competition. It is easy to put together a 60 second elevator pitch but next they are writing executive summaries and then complete business plans. At each stage contestants declare publicly both orally and in writing their intent to follow through with the business idea. Eventually, through the absolutely amazing power of cognitive dissonance, contestants feel pressure to make sense of their efforts and declarations and rationalize that they must truly want to start these businesses after all. In fact, the large prize money offered in these contests actually takes away from the cognitive dissonance effect as it provides an alternative justification to contestants. So, counter intuitively, if the $100K organizers really want to create more entrepreneurs they might consider dropping the prize money back down to the original $1K!